Nomura Maintains Constructive View On India Real Estate As Listed Developers Set For Third Consecutive Quarter Of Resilient Pre-sales In Q3 Fy26

Nomura Bullish on India Real Estate as Listed Developers Deliver Third Consecutive Quarter of Resilient Pre-Sales in Q3 FY26

India's residential real estate market continues to defy macro headwinds, with listed developers on track to deliver their third consecutive quarter of strong pre-sales in Q3 FY26 (October–December 2025), according to a January 2026 preview note from Nomura. The Japan-based brokerage maintains a constructive outlook on the sector despite subdued equity markets and broader economic uncertainties, signaling that housing demand remains fundamentally intact across price points and geographies.

The most striking finding: demand for branded residential projects is healthy and widespread, with developers constrained more by supply bottlenecks and regulatory approvals than by buyer appetite. This structural imbalance—too many buyers chasing too few ready projects—has become the defining feature of India's premium residential market.

Developer-Specific Performance Forecasts

Nomura's analysis paints a granular picture of Q3 FY26 pre-sales momentum across India's top listed players:

• Lodha Developers: Expected to deliver its strongest-ever quarterly pre-sales at approximately ₹5,500 crore, up 22% year-on-year, driven by strong sustenance sales and new launches. (Actual result: ₹5,620 crore, up 25% YoY—beating Nomura's estimate.)
• Godrej Properties: Projected to post robust growth of ₹7,600 crore in pre-sales, a 40% jump year-on-year on a low base, supported by multiple launches across Mumbai, Bengaluru, Pune, and plotted developments in other cities. High-profile Worli project carries upside potential.
• Prestige Estates: Reaffirmed as Nomura's top pick. The Bengaluru-based developer reported ₹4,183.6 crore in Q3 FY26 pre-sales, up 39% YoY, with 9M FY26 sales bookings jumping over two times to ₹22,327.3 crore.
• Aditya Birla Real Estate (ABREL): Anticipated to see a significant 225% year-on-year surge in pre-sales to ₹2,200 crore.
• DLF and Oberoi Realty: Likely to report muted numbers due to the absence of major launches and a high base effect from the prior year.

Why This Matters for Homebuyers

Nomura's constructive stance has immediate implications for buyers in India's top metros. First, prices are unlikely to soften meaningfully in the near term—strong demand and constrained supply give developers pricing power. Second, approval delays and launch timing issues may create temporary inventory shortages, making it harder to find ready or near-ready projects in preferred micro-markets. Third, the emphasis on branded developers suggests that unbranded or smaller players face headwinds, which could benefit established names through consolidation.

For buyers in the premium and mid-premium segments (₹1.5 crore to ₹3.5 crore per unit), competition for units is intensifying. Projects priced appropriately for their location are seeing strong traction, while overpriced offerings are struggling. Buyers who have been waiting for a price correction may need to reset expectations; Nomura's data suggests the market is more likely to see steady prices with selective launches than a broad-based correction.

What Nomura's Data Reveals About Demand Patterns

Nomura's analysis highlights healthy traction across multiple price segments and geographies. Super-luxury projects (₹4 crore to ₹17 crore per unit) are receiving encouraging responses. Mid-premium offerings (₹3 crore to ₹3.5 crore) are also attracting buyers. Even more affordable units (around ₹1.5 crore per unit) are finding buyers. This broad-based demand across segments—rather than concentration in one price tier—underscores the structural health of India's residential cycle.

Key markets—Bengaluru, Mumbai, and the National Capital Region (NCR)—continue to see stable buyer interest. Approval delays remain a short-term constraint, but Nomura does not expect these to undermine the underlying demand cycle. Instead, timing shifts (launches moving from Q3 to Q4) are more likely than demand destruction.

Nomura's Sector Outlook and Developer Selection

Nomura's confidence rests on several pillars: disciplined balance sheets among top developers, strong brand recall, visible launch pipelines, and improved execution capabilities. The brokerage expects several large developers to remain on course to meet their full-year FY26 pre-sales guidance. Prestige Estates, Lodha Developers, and Aditya Birla Real Estate are the top picks, reflecting their superior growth trajectories, geographic diversification, and focus on mid-income and premium segments.

The brokerage also notes that India's residential real estate cycle remains structurally healthy, with demand holding firm across segments and cities. Near-term volatility in equity markets and approval-related delays may influence quarterly numbers, but the medium-term outlook for top branded developers is robust.

Actual Q3 FY26 Results Validate Nomura's Bullish View

Lodha Developers' actual Q3 FY26 results vindicated Nomura's constructive call. The company reported ₹5,620 crore in pre-sales, up 25% YoY, beating Nomura's estimate of ₹5,500 crore. The company added five projects with a gross development value of ₹33,800 crore across MMR, NCR, and Bengaluru in Q3 alone, signaling aggressive expansion into high-growth markets. Lodha's 9M FY26 pre-sales reached ₹14,640 crore, up 14% YoY, putting the company on track to exceed its ₹21,000 crore annual guidance.

Prestige Estates also delivered record operational results, with 9M FY26 sales bookings jumping over two times to ₹22,327.3 crore. The company is expected to surpass its FY26E pre-sales guidance of ₹25,000–27,000 crore, with brokerages estimating pre-sales of about ₹29,000 crore (70% YoY growth).

Consolidation Favors Branded Developers

A key takeaway from Nomura's analysis is that India's residential real estate market is consolidating in favor of large, branded developers. While overall housing sales in India's top nine cities declined 16% YoY in Q3 FY26 to 98,019 units, listed developers are expected to outperform the broader market due to brand strength, execution capabilities, geographic diversification, and a focus on mid-income and premium segments. This two-tier market—where branded developers thrive while unbranded players struggle—is likely to persist.

What to Expect in Q4 FY26 and Beyond

Nomura expects a significant launch pipeline in Q4 FY26 across multiple price segments, including ultra-luxury, mid-range, and affordable projects. Most major developers are on track to meet or surpass their FY26 pre-sales guidance. Housing demand is expected to remain resilient, especially for top branded developers, though approval delays and macro uncertainty may create near-term volatility. The structural tailwinds—urbanization, rising incomes, and a shortage of quality supply—remain intact.

Related Markets and Projects Affected

• Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR): Godrej Properties' Worli project and Lodha's expanding portfolio are key drivers of growth.
• Bengaluru: Prestige Estates continues to lead with record pre-sales and a strong pipeline of premium and mid-income projects.
• National Capital Region (NCR): Lodha's recent entry with two joint development projects signals a structural shift in supply dynamics.
• Pune: Godrej Properties and other developers are expanding plotted and residential offerings.
• Premium Mid-Income Segment (₹1.5–3.5 crore): Strongest demand momentum across all geographies.